Monday, 27 January 2014

Predictions for 2024

A few months ago, as a result of making disparaging comments about Isaac Asimov's predictions in 1964 for 2014, someone asked me to make predictions for 2024. 

I think making predictions is extraordinarily difficult. And I don't have the knowledge to attempt such a thing. However I decided not to be boring and gave it a crack anyway. This is what I said: 

2024? Well I'll predict everything will be more or less the same.

OK google glasses will have limited success when they are first launched. But later models will become more and more popular as all the issues are ironed out. It'll be like the history of mobile phones (cell phones). At first very few people will have them, but eventually they became all pervasive.

People will not make a one way trip to Mars in April 2023 to live the rest of their lives there! I just can't see that happening, at least not by that time.

Smart watches will find a market, but they will never become that popular. They're too small and people will prefer their smartphones.

Much less stress will be placed on the notion that saturated fats are a great evil. It will be increasingly recognised by 2024 that it is sugar and refined carbs, rather than dietary fat and lack of exercise, which is largely responsible for rising obesity rates and ill-health.

Yeah not very startling exciting predictions.  But I'm trying to be realistic.  I think I may have been proven to be correct with the Mars trip already since the last time I heard a year mentioned it was 2025!  But, regardless, I cannot imagine it happening before 2040, and I doubt that a one way trip will ever happen -- or at least not until Mars is terraformed!

1 comment:

  1. More of the same, I think that's the rule! :-)
    I'll have a go:

    Smart Stuff

    The notion of a device and its display will become detached. And then the notion of there being particular devices for particular purposes will dissolve.

    First, the glasses technology - which will evolve to reliably project a display in front of you - will be device independent, in that they'll "link" to any smart phone or smart watch or computer with the right app.

    In time, all devices will be relatively free-form interfaces or 'windows' to your content - just different sized "windows" on your digital world, which won't really have a specific location that you know about. The notion that some devices have mobile/wifi capability, etc, and others do not will be transparent to the user - provided there is some device available nearby with the right technology, it will hook in and use it.

    All the user will be concerned with is that their visual device will be providing a to access and use and share 'their stuff".

    Mars

    Something will happen politically which keeps delaying this. Other wars or some orbit/moon-based adventure or other resource concerns. The projects as already risen and fallen repeatedly; every new president will announce a renewed effort, every new president will let it fall aside in his or her second term.

    Diet

    Soylent-style approaches will become more acceptable as a major component of one's diet. Meals will become more about their social, treat dynamic.

    Finance & Banking

    The problems of 2008 were not solved. The crisis was the sign of the end of a 50 years super-cycle. Economies will not fully recover unless there is some greater 'reset'; there will be 'bumps' on the way down in a roughly 5-year cycle, unless delaying tactics are employed. The only way out is to devalue money covertly or explicitly; this is effectively a migration of value from one section of the population to another.

    The Weather

    Sunnier than ever, definitely! Just as well, because we'll all be sleeping outdoors after the Big Event, whatever it might be. ;-)

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